Energy consumption structure

This section provides a detailed breakdown of energy consumption in Bolivia, modeled using a combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches. The energy demand model follows a hierarchical tree framework, as visualized in the sunburst chart, categorizing energy consumers into five levels: sector, subsector, class, usage type, and technology.

At the center of the diagram, total final energy demand for 2021 is represented at 81.7 TWh, branching into nine key sectors: Residential, Transport, Commercial, Public Lighting, Industry, Agriculture, Mining, Fishing & Others, and Non-Energy. Each sector is further divided into specific applications such as passenger transport, freight, industrial processes, heating, and other energy-intensive activities. These applications are connected to their respective energy carriers, including electricity, gasoline, diesel, fossil gas, LPG, LFO, lignocellulosic biomass (wood), and biowaste. The size of each segment reflects its share of energy consumption, with the transport and industrial sectors emerging as the largest consumers. Road transport is heavily dependent on gasoline and diesel, while industrial activities primarily rely on fossil gas and biomass for process heat. Meanwhile, residential energy demand is largely driven by cooking and electricity use.

¹ Source publication of these results: Jimenez Zabalaga, P., Limpens, G., Thiran P., Villarroel-Schneider, J., Cardozo, E., & Jeanmart, H. (2025). "Towards a Sustainable Bolivian Energy System: The Pathway for Decarbonization under High Renewable Potential until 2050".
Model repository: https://github.com/CIE-UMSS/EnergyScope_Pathway_BO/tree/main/Characterization_and_projection_of_Bolivian_energy_demand

Greenhouse gas emissions

This chart illustrates Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sector, where the stacked area plots represent emissions in MtCO₂, categorized by sector (e.g., transport, heating, electricity, and industry) over time.

Key Insights:

• BAU Scenario: GHG emissions grow to 23.38 MtCO₂ by 2050, more than 1.2 times the emissions level in 2021. Mobility and high-temperature heat emerge as the predominant contributors to emissions. This is mainly due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels for transportation in the mobility sector, as well as for boilers and machinery in the industrial sector.
• CET Scenario: The energy system emits 9.31 MtCO₂ by 2050, representing less than half (49%) of the operational emissions in 2021, but still falling short of carbon neutrality. This reduction is primarily driven by the gradual transition to renewable energy sources. However, additional mitigation measures or technological innovations are necessary to address residual emissions.
• NZE Scenario: In this scenario, fossil fuel-related emissions are effectively eliminated by 2050 due to linear reduction measures. Nevertheless, 0.19 MtCO₂ of emissions still result from geothermal power plant operations, primarily due to non-condensable gases naturally released during energy extraction.

Total power installed capacity

This chart illustrates the changes in total installed capacities for the power system across years, measured in GW, categorized by type of generation technology.

Key Insights:

• BAU Scenario: Installed power generation capacity in 2050 is estimated at 4.26 GW and largely dominated by a few key technologies, with PV contributing 34.19%, followed by CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) at 29.63%. Hydro river accounts for 15.19% and hydro dam contributes 13.24%. This limited capacity increase reflects the minimal electrification of end-uses, maintaining electricity as a secondary energy carrier across sectors.
• EPI Scenario: Power generation capacity rises to 20.80 GW by 2050. The most significant contributor is PV, which makes up 51.86% of the total capacity. Wind onshore follows at 15.85%, while biomass steam turbine contributes 10.67% and hydro dam makes up 6.23%. This substantial increase in capacity is driven by the electrification of various sectors, with a growing role for renewable energy sources, especially solar.
• NZE Scenario: This scenario achieves the highest power generation capacity, reaching 38.80 GW by 2050. Solar PV is the dominant source, contributing 73.87% of the total capacity, followed by wind onshore at 18.16%. Hydro dam contributes 3.34%, while geothermal accounts for 2.41%. This reflects a substantial scaling-up of renewable energy, essential for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. It also positions electricity as a central energy carrier.

Total power generation

This chart illustrates the changes in total energy production for the power system across years, measured in TWh, categorized by type of generation technology.

Key Insights:

• BAU Scenario: The total electricity generation in 2050 reaches 15.88 TWh. The system remains highly dependent on fossil fuel technologies, with CCGT (39.55%), hydro river (21.29%), PV (18.91%), and hydro dam (12.85%) making up the largest share of the generation mix.
• EPI Scenario: The total electricity generation in 2050 increases to 47.07 TWh. There is a gradual shift towards renewable technologies, with PV (41.50%), geothermal (17.18%), wind onshore (15.97%), and hydro river (9.41%) taking a significant share in the generation mix.
• NZE Scenario: The total electricity generation in 2050 reaches 87.23 TWh, driven by a complete transition to renewable energy. PV (61.51%) and wind onshore (19.23%) dominate the generation mix, followed by geothermal (8.89%) and hydro dam (5.12%).

Hourly dispatch per decade

This chart illustrates the Hourly Electric Dispatch, measured in MW, simulated for an entire year in each decade. It presents the energy demand and generation by technology. The interactive chart allows users to explore the system's operational behavior for specific timeframes and technologies. From a general perspective, dispatch behavior shows that the electrical demand curve will be dramatically affected by the type of scenario, as in the BAU scenario, electric demand will keep its current shape, where peak demands are expected in the late afternoon. Alternatively, scenarios like the EPI or NZE will change the demand curve distribution as a result of new electrical demands that will be introduced in the system (from sectors and services like transport or low temperature heat demands are electrified). Finally, it can also be seen that, as the system increases its size and the shares of renewable technologies, the curtailment expected in the generation system will also increase, as flexible technologies such as gas turbines are decommissioned or limit their use due to emission restrictions.