This page offers an interactive exploration of the latest TESMEP project modelling results for the Bolivian case study. For this particular section (Long-term energy planning), results of the analysis of Bolivia's energy system and its potential transition pathways until 2050.
To explore Bolivia's energy future, three scenarios have been developed, each representing different policy pathways and assumptions regarding energy services:
Our results are based on publicly available data, previous research, and a bidirectional soft-linking method (illustrated below) that employs two country-specific curated models: EnergyScope-BO, which focuses on whole energy system planning, and PyPSA-BO, which optimizes power system expansion*.
*Main source: Fernandez Vazquez, C.A.A., Jimenez Zabalaga, P., Balderrama, S., Cardozo, E., Jeanmart, H. & Quoilin, S. (2024). "A bi-directional soft-linking method for a Whole Energy System Model and a Power System Optimization Model. Application and analysis for the Bolivian case". In: The European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform (ECEMP) 2024 conference.
Model repository: https://github.com/CIE-UMSS/EnergyScope_Pathway_BO & https://github.com/CIE-UMSS/PyPSA-BO
For over the last 30 years, Bolivia has been a country that is heavily reliant on the use of fossil fuels to power its internal energy demand with a steady growth in each of the consuming sectors.
From our analysis we can conclude that without decisive actions, the energy system will remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with demand increasing significantly by 2050 (BAU). However, with strong policies and the deployment of renewable technologies, demands reliant on fossil fuels can gradually be replaced reaching a final demand as low as 25% (EPI). On the other hand, achieving full decarbonization will require a substantial transformation, with renewables supplying most of the energy produced. Key sectors like industry and transport must transition through synthetic fuels and electrification to ensure a sustainable, carbon-neutral future (CN).
You can check values in absolute or normalized units depending on the view mode selected.
Due to Bolivia’s Energy system's high dependency on fossil fuels, historically, the costs incurred by the government have been mostly linked to operational expenses (fuel, operation, and maintenance).
Maintaining a fossil fuel-dependent energy system results in rising costs, with fuel expenses increasing by nearly 40% by 2050 due to continued reliance on imports (BAU). Transitioning to a more diversified energy mix requires significantly higher investments—up to 165% more than today—but helps stabilize fuel costs over time (EPI). Achieving full decarbonization demands the largest upfront investments, over 300% higher than current levels, yet it drastically reduces long-term fuel dependency, therefore offsetting operational cost linked to fossil fuels for investments in clean technologies (CN).
Bolivia’s power system is usually represented as a 4-node system, where capacity is distributed among the central, north, south, and oriental regions. Each region’s power capacity has been increasing steadily in the last years, mostly by increasing its thermal and hydro capacity, however, several small renewable-based projects have started to appear.
The expansion of Bolivia’s power system is directly tied to the chosen energy pathway. Under a fossil-fuel-dependent scenario, growth remains marginal, while more ambitious policies drive significant increases in both generation and transmission capacity (BAU). Solar power emerges as the dominant technology for capacity expansion, concentrated in the western regions, while wind power is primarily deployed in the east, aligning with resource availability (EPI). Strategic investments in renewables and grid infrastructure will be essential to meet future energy demands and emissions targets, especially in more demanding scenarios where decarbonization targets are to be met (CN).